I have a confession: back in 2000, I cast my vote for George W. Bush. I was six years old, my favorite Pokémon was Torchic, and I just wanted to fit in. Growing up, my immigrant parents always listened to NPR – their slightly accented voices copying the perfect pronunciation of the hosts so that they could practice their English to better assimilate. I knew my parents supported Al Gore, but when I watched my fellow classmates all cast their votes for Bush (Public ballots? How dare my first-grade teacher!), I changed my vote and joined most of my class at recess, running around emboldened and unified, celebrating the win. My classmate grabbed my hand, laughing, and crowed, “Al Gore said he invented the internet, what a liar!” The excitement over being part of the winning group suddenly cooled – I knew her statement was wrong. I actually listened to the reporting about that claim on NPR and had learned that Gore’s original statement had been twisted and taken out of context (I was a very serious six-year-old). I didn’t want to disturb the fragile joy of a recess where I wasn’t eating alone in the library, so I swallowed my response. That was the last and only time I voted Republican.
Looking back from the vantage point of 2023, the current Republican Party and the 2024 Republican Presidential candidates make George W. Bush look like a once in a generation statesman. While he was a war criminal (a feature of many presidents not restricted to party affiliation), the Republican Party under Bush at minimum had the discipline of not presenting as outwardly racist, sexist, and fascist. It’s remarkable that the Republican Party has swerved so far right that Bush is now too liberal, this is the man who was once viewed as the ideological heir of Ronald Reagan, who was backed by every major conservative including the Christian right. With Bush’s condemnation of the Jan. 6th insurrection and Donald Trump, there is no place for him in the current Republican party. The out of context misinformation of “Al Gore said he invented the internet” looks harmless, almost silly in comparison to the foundational lies that buoy the Republican party of today – which under Trump, has grown into a perverse monster comprised of looney conspiracy theories, where Q-Anon supporters have become representatives in Congress and the loudest voices in the Republican party. Some are even implicated in the Jan. 6th insurrection. The previous core tenants of national security, free market economics, and social conservativism have been perverted – now the Republican party is preoccupied with racist calls for law and order, culture wars (think “wokeness” and “cancel culture”), and undermining the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Sure, some of these themes have been prevalent in the Republican Party for years, but never in this dominant and shrill form.
Despite clear evidence from both polling and actual voting, the Republican Party has doubled down on their losing stances of banning abortions, “wars on woke” in schools, and propagating the lie of the “stolen 2020 election” and underplaying the crimes of the Jan. 6th insurrection. The Republican Party is disconnected from the American electorate, including their own voter base. 61% of Americans believe abortion should be legal, more than 70% of Americans believe teachers and school officials should decide what books are appropriate for students, and 53% of Americans believe Trump should be prosecuted for Jan. 6th. How did this disconnect between the Republican party and the voter base happen? Who is benefitting from this disconnect? What does this mean for the future of the Republican Party and the 2024 Presidential election?
GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT - ABORTIONS
The vast majority of Americans want access to abortions. A USA Today/Suffolk poll found that 80% of voters oppose a federal abortion ban, including 65% of Republicans. Despite that, with the overturning of Roe v. Wade last summer, Republicans have finally fulfilled their decades long goal of overturning the constitutional right to abortion. Now states can ban abortions – but even in red states, voters want abortion rights, so Republicans keep losing on abortion. Abortion rights has won in all seven states where they were directly on the ballot – including Kentucky, Montana, and Kansas. Once voters learn anything about Republican policies against abortion, no amount of rebranding or propaganda will justify the miseries of child rape victims needing to travel out of state for abortions, people bleeding out from miscarriages, families falling into poverty because they were forced to have babies, or harsh abortion bans with no exceptions for rape and incest. Data from the Gender Equity Policy Institute shows that pregnant people living in states with abortion bans are “three times more likely to die during pregnancy, childbirth, or soon after giving birth.” The overwhelming support for reproductive rights among American voters, as evidenced by recent polls and election results, highlights the significant disconnect between the Republican party's stance on abortion and the preferences of the electorate, ultimately emphasizing the urgent need for a more inclusive and compassionate approach to healthcare policy in the United States.
Interestingly, Republicans know abortion is their Achilles’ heel, with Trump even saying in a Republican secret meeting in 2022 that “we’re getting killed on abortion.” Most significantly, during the 2022 Midterms, despite rampant inflation and economic woes under Democrat President Joe Biden, the anticipated “Red Wave” never materialized. Because of voter’s concerns for abortion rights, the Democrats had a historically good performance in key midterm races. Knowing that they’re stuck in political quicksand, Republicans are now attempting to switch tactics. First, Republican lawmakers have brainstormed a rebrand of “pro-life” into “pro baby.” It’s doubtful that Republicans can get away with this rebranding given their opposition to welfare benefits and social programs that would truly make the party “pro baby.” And second, Republicans are no longer advancing any specific policy aims, but instead hand waving that they’d like a national abortion ban while refusing to define what that means and who that will affect. Even Trump, who is currently the leading candidate, has been secretive of whether he would support a national abortion pan – calling the six week ban signed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (and his semi-rival) “too harsh”. When the de facto leader of the Republican party refuses to define his own stances on abortion because of controversy, despite the Republican party being the “pro-life” party, it cannot be clearer that there lacks an actual voter base for these Republican policies. Regardless, Republican controlled states continue to attempt to push through various draconian restrictions – including a bill in South Carolina categorizing abortion as homicide punishable by the death penalty and a law in Idaho making it a crime punishable up to five years in prison for adults who help minors get abortions across state lines. Without a voter base or grassroots movement mobilizing for these bans, these harsh restrictions on abortion rights are even more baffling.
NO ONE CARES ABOUT THIS WOKE CRAP
This shift by Republicans towards a more confrontational stance on abortion, despite the lack of voter support, aligns with the Republican party’s militant approach to other social issues – especially those with regards to culture wars in schools. Culture wars in this context refer to the political battles over cultural issues like LGBTQ+ and racial inclusivity (like critical race theory). The Republican war on “woke” is the antagonism against leftist pollical ideology, like social justice politics. For example, Florida under Governor DeSantis recently passed the controversial “Don’t Say Gay” law which restricts sex education in 6th-12th grade and bans any teaching about gender identity or sexual orientation. Since then, more than a dozen red states have signed similar laws. Texas has not only banned transgender women and girls from school sports, but also begun child abuse investigations against parents. Alabama is enacting criminal penalties against medical professionals who provide gender affirming care to minors. Multiple states have legislation targeting drag queens. Republican controlled states are even passing proposals that make it easier to ban books, in both school and public libraries. Supposedly, this is all in the interest of protecting parental rights, with Republicans like DeSantis arguing, “Parents want education for their kids: they are not interested in indoctrination through the school system.” Despite this, a recent CBS survey found that more than 4/5ths of Americans opposed banning books just because they criticized American history or discussed race. A Grinnell College national poll found that more than 70% of Americans trusted school officials to decide what is appropriate for libraries. Voters confirmed this polling – school board candidates who ran culture-war based campaigns in 2023 underperformed compared to non-culture war candidates, even in historically red districts in Illinois and Wisconsin. Clearly there is a disconnect between the Republican party's embrace of culture wars and anti-"woke" campaigns and the broader American electorate.
Similarly, general election voters seem less interested in crusades against wokeness and transgender students. This is clearly reflected in the Republican voters general apathy towards DeSantis, THE culture war candidate, who used the full might of the Floridian state bureaucracy to go after Disney’s opposition to the Don’t Say Gay law and promised Florida is the state where “woke goes to die.” Turns out his anti-woke crusade isn’t connecting with voters, and DeSantis continues to flounder in the polls and lose big name donors. According to a poll by the New York Times, only 24% of Republican voters would choose a “candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology” over “a candidate who focuses on restoring law and order.” Among 65+ year-old voters, only 17% chose the anti-woke candidate. Heck, 56% of Americans find the word ‘woke” positive! The Republican party's embrace of culture wars and anti-"woke" campaigns appears to be out of touch with the broader American electorate, as recent polling and election results demonstrate a clear preference for non-culture war candidates.
UM TRUMP LITERALLY TRIED TO OVERTHROW DEMOCRACY
Perhaps the most glaring manifestation of delusion within the Republican party lies in its unwavering support for Trump, even in the wake of the Jan. 6th insurrection and his subsequent indictment on multiple criminal charges. Let us be clear here: Jan. 6th was a fundamental attack on our democracy where the invaders who broke into Congress wanted to keep Trump in office despite Joe Biden’s legitimate victory amongst both voters and the Electoral College. Trump stands as the first American president to face such grave legal jeopardy, with a staggering 91 criminal charges spanning four states. These charges encompass a wide range of offenses, from hush money bribes to the theft of classified documents, and even to his involvement on Jan. 6th and subsequent efforts to overturn Biden's victory in Georgia. Despite this, Trump continues to dominate the Republican Party primary for the 2024 election, boasting a commanding double-digit lead over his nearest rival, DeSantis. Trump has denied all culpability and still is the most popular figurehead in the Republican party, Republicans have fallen in line and underplayed the severity of Jan. 6th with many saying the insurrection was legitimate political discourse (despite the nine deaths), and there have yet to be any real consequences for the true instigators of that fateful day. Trump’s candidacy for a second term is the literal embodiment of the Republican party’s delusion: they refuse to accept the will of the voters in 2020 and are willing to support a criminal candidate that has no respect for democratic procedures.
In many ways, it appears incomprehensible that the Republican Party would chain itself to such a liability as it heads into the 2024 election. However, no alternative candidate has risen to challenge Trump, and most of the other contenders have pledged to pardon him if elected or enthusiastically endorse his candidacy if he secures the nomination. This glaring lack of political backbone finds some justification in the fact that only two out of the ten House Republicans who supported Trump's impeachment managed to retain their seats, with the rest falling victim to political backlash. Yet, Trump's popularity has a firm limit beyond the Republican party's base. Recent polling data reveals that he holds a mere 30% favorability rating among Independents, with over 52% of them believing he engaged in illegal activities. Trump has made minimal efforts to expand his support base and remains toxic to Independents. A striking 63% of Americans view the charges related to the Georgia election as serious. While initially each indictment seemed to correlate with a boost in Trump's popularity, an increasing number of Americans now believe that he should face significant consequences. In fact, three in five Americans advocate for Trump standing trial prior to the Republican primaries or the 2024 general election. As of the latest projections, Trump is scheduled to face trial on January 2nd, 2024, in Washington, D.C., for his involvement in the plot to overturn the 2020 election, and on February 15th, 2024, in Georgia for his attempt to subvert the election there. Considering these facts, it is shocking for the Republican party to persist in its unwavering support for Trump, a stance that not only alienates a substantial portion of the electorate but also disregards the mounting calls for accountability and justice.
WHY IS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY SO DELULU
All of this begs the question – why is the Republican party so divorced from reality and what aims are these delusions meant to serve?
Gerrymandering encourages delusion
Republicans keep chasing unpopular goals: abortion bans, banning books, making firearms more accessible, and blocking healthcare for LGBTQ+. Why? The first reason: that is how the party system is. This extremely polarized agenda is the logical conclusion of Republican lawmakers realizing they’re the party in power and gerrymandering the legislative districts such that red states get even redder (blue states turn bluer too, but this happens much less). Often these elections aren’t as interesting as the media makes them out to be – most incumbents easily coast to additional terms. Only 14 of the 435 House incumbents lost their elections last year and half were victims of Trump retaliation (for example Liz Cheney). Incumbency naturally puts you at an advantage – taxpayer funded travel, the bully pulpit, and already circling donors. In our increasingly polarized districts, really only 45 House seats are competitively in play. Therefore, the real election isn’t between the Democrat and the Republican, but in deciding who is the candidate from the dominant party. Being seen as someone who stands out and doesn’t toe the party line is a death sentence – therefore, being consistent with the President and the larger Republican party is key to maintaining support to obtain the nomination. Therefore, one way of understanding the Republican party is to see that the battlelines were drawn well before the current culture wars began. Until 2031, when most of these maps are locked in place, Republicans will continue to follow these unpopular, racist, and patriarchal policies if that is the guidance set from the top. The most important takeaway here is if Democrats can better focus on winning state legislature seats, Democrats would have far more power in altering national politics.
Young people do not vote Republican
Second, young voters are increasingly identifying as Democrats. 63% of youths vote Democrats, as opposed to only 35% voting Republican. For three election cycles in a row with the 2018 midterms, the 2020 election, and the 2022 midterms – young Americans have had a significant impact in stopping the projected “red wave.” For example, amongst the baby boomers, Republicans won by 12 points amongst people over the age of 65 – but Gen Z and young millennials were the wall against turning that into a Republican victory. The Republicans know that they have a generation gap issue as fewer and fewer young people are joining the Republican Party. Younger voters are more diverse, less religious, and more likely to identify with LGBTQ+. They are more likely to be pro-abortion, pro climate change action, and pro gun control. For example, abortion was the top young voters’ issue in 2022, and part of the reason why Republicans underperformed nationally. Young people are not only not voting Republican, but young people are also not going to states that harbor extreme views on abortion. For example, from 2022 to 2023, states with abortion bans saw a 10.5% drop in applicants for OB/GYN residencies. Places like Idaho with the most restrictive abortion bans are losing maternal health specialists. In a society where Republicans party platforms are increasingly becoming draconian and out of touch with lived reality, young voters aren’t interested in voting for a party that refuses to acknowledge their lived realities: women without bodily autonomy, no action on climate change even when the effects now impact our daily lives, and no restrictions on guns despite rampant school shootings.
Republicans know they’re losing the youth vote – which is why they’ve turned to their favorite tactic: voter suppression. For example, in Idaho, lawmakers have prohibited young people from using student IDs to vote. In Florida, Desantis signed a bill that restricts third party voter registrations (popular with the youth) by requiring them to register with the state each election cycle. 2024 Republican presidential Vivek Ramaswamy has even proposed raising the voting age to 25. Republican pundits like Kellyanne Conway fret that Democrats have created a “turnout machine” propagated by “social media influencers,” commenting that “we got some work to do on young people.” Unfortunately, unless the Republican party tweaks its message, abortion bans, encouraging teachers to carry guns, and climate change denialism, young people will not vote Republican. This explains some of the frantic anxiety behind some of the Republican party’s most unhinged legislation surrounding culture wars in school. Republicans often argue that certain concepts are “divisive” such as systemic racial inequity and LGBTQ+ education, with restrictions in classrooms exploding since 2021. Republicans are fighting back – by trying to control the classroom and prevent exposure of certain information to students. This is why new videos in the Florida curriculum teach slavery as a “compromise” and explain it taught the slaves important skills. Other videos explain that climate change is still a controversial topic, with the teaching encouraging students to form their own opinions and not “blindly” assume climate change is real. This is not ending soon – Republican lawmakers have plans to expand similar bills to public colleges and universities. In Arizona, there is a proposed amendment to the state constitution to ban the teaching of critical race theory. Behind all the fascist attempts to ban books is an increasingly scared and small bigoted minority that is afraid of social progress and hoping that future generations can be indoctrinated by their heavy-handed attempts to control education.
Rolling back rights: a larger trend
The 1960’s in America was known as the “rights revolution.” Congress and the Supreme Court struck down racial segregation, expanded rights available to women, and decriminalized homosexuality. Many Republicans fervently opposed these rights expansions, especially legislators from states that sponsored racial segregation, arguing that only states had the power to claim rights. The federal legislation that codified the “rights revolution” seemed to end that debate conclusively on the side of national rights. History is a pendulum however, so over the past several decades, Republicans have attempted to tilt the balance back from national rights to state’s rights in an effort to claw back control.
Red states and Republican lawmakers have been following a sweeping drive to roll back civil rights and liberties on the state level. Since 2021 the red state offensive is advancing abortion bans, voting restrictions, education ‘gag orders’, minimizing LGBTQ+ rights, reducing protestors’ rights, and paradoxically reducing restrictions on gun owners. Even the current ACLU president Deborah Archer argues this is unprecedented , “What is disturbing is how … many of the legal protections are failing at the same time.” Why is this happening now? Democrats currently control the White House and Congress, severely limiting Republican influence on the national level – which explains why Republicans are refocusing on states that they control. Meanwhile, excessively gerrymandered states are emboldened by a Republican Supreme Court that will unlikely strike down any of these red state initiatives.
Additionally, white voters in the Trump era have increasingly been dominating the Republican party with fears about cultural and demographic change. Many Republicans now support the racist “Replacement Theory” which argues that Democrats are encouraging immigration for a multicultural future to “replace” traditional Americans (white people) – and therefore Republican voter base. Even Trump himself has warned of an immigrant invasion and been slow to condemn white supremacy. Probably one of the most powerful reasons for this surge in culturally conservative legislation is what it seeks to counter. Republicans are correct that an irreversible cultural and demographic change is coming – 1 in 5 Gen Z identify as LGBTQ+ and White Christians now only compose of 2/5ths of the population. In an uncertain diverse future, the Republican strategy is to focus on the states they currently have a legislative majority to carve out a future that aligns with their imagined realities. We’ll see red states and blue states diverge more and more as red states increasingly discredit rights that were only awarded after titanic struggle. A more diverse future is just around the corner, and the Republican party has no plan to address it head on, instead demarcating their territory and launching a vicious attack on civil rights and liberties that bring America back half a century.
WHAT NOW? IDK BUT HERE ARE MY DREAMS
Endings to such essays invariably follow a predictable script. The plea echoes relentlessly: Vote, dear reader, in every election, big or small – if anything it's the latter, the local ones, that wield the most potent influence. Engage in "get out the vote" initiatives and become an active participant in your immediate community. PLEASE, we must not allow Trump to seize the presidency in 2024; this is our last line of defense before this dismantling of rights spreads from the state to the federal level. Also, we must not allow Trump to win because he is an actual criminal.
Beyond all that hoo ha, I’m sure I’m not the only American that wishes we had a respectable Republican party that existed as an alternative to the Democratic party. Of course, I understand there exist third parties and I honor all attempts to break out of our two-party system, but fundamentally I am disturbed that at no point in my 29 years of existence has the Republican party effectively messaged themselves to me. Often the voting decision doesn’t even require any critical thinking, even if I’m not excited about the Democratic candidate, it’s either vote Democrat or lose my rights. I dream of a future where the Republican party can be a party that provides an alternative vision of America that is inclusive and not fundamentally racist or sexist. They might even earn my vote!
People often label me as idealistic, which I do not necessarily agree with. I’m optimistic about human potential: every day I see the tiny yet crucial sacrifices we make for one another to improve and ease one another’s burdens. In our hyper-politicized era, it’s easy to view anyone not on your side of the aisle as a bad person, but we’re all influenced by factors out of our control, including where we were born and how we were raised. Independent of that, I’d like to think there is some level of good most of us all strive for. Fundamentally we need to have more compassion for one another, we should build to be inclusive instead exclusive, and as the richest and supposedly greatest country in the world, we have an obligation to elevate our own citizens.
The world is undergoing unsettling transformations on multiple pumps (everything is on fire literally). For many, it might seem as if the world is teetering on the brink of collapse. Yet it's worth remembering America isn’t even 300 years old. Many civilizations that enjoyed much lengthier tenures have risen and fallen during humanity's existence – brought down by the very concerns that currently plague us: climate upheaval, internal strife, and the ascent of rival powers. When you consider everything in the context of human history, what we've built here is undeniably remarkable (albeit deeply flawed). Hopefully, we can extricate our heads from the sand, adopt a forward-thinking outlook, and work together to prevent everything from spiraling into chaos. Failure to do so would consign us to the same fate as countless civilizations before us, unable to chart a path to survival.
I think the biggest issue is like the classic innovator's dilemma. Rs have such a strong foothold in Christians who just care about abortion especially in the south that they know they'll have no chance in any near-term elections if they just drop that issue. They would need a multi-cycle re-defining of values where they just say eff that large core constituency and redefine the core platform to recapture those more in the center, but no one in power right now would be willing to sacrifice the next 4-8 years even if it's the right move 10-20 years down the line. It'll probably eventually shift when the Christian base just becomes so small or the young Christians also support abortion